Developing a generic biosecurity risk assessment model for imports


  • L.E. Jamieson
  • O. Woodberry
  • C.M. McDonald
  • M. Ormsby



Developing decision support models to evaluate biosecurity risks objectively helps decision makers manage the associated risks with importation of goods We report on the development of a prototype generic risk assessment model to determine the probability and consequences of a plant pest establishment and spread event for an infection point given the biosecurity risk organism arrives via various pathways The model has a number of submodels including entry pathway which models the ratio of infested units coming from any pathway supplying the infection point; establishment and spread which models the chance of an establishment and spread event occuring at an infection point; and consequences which models the consequences of any establishment or spread event occurring at the site Future research is planned to develop a generic input interface to generate a support tool to allow a user to investigate the impacts of alternative whatif scenarios and to test the model on realworld plant pest inputs




How to Cite

Jamieson, L., Woodberry, O., McDonald, C., & Ormsby, M. (2016). Developing a generic biosecurity risk assessment model for imports. New Zealand Plant Protection, 69, 186-199.




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