Estimating the probability of eradication of painted apple moth from Auckland

Abstract

A set of assumptions can be used to estimate the confidence that a continuing lack of detection reflects successful eradication of a pest population This approach is applied to the painted apple moth (Teia anartoides) in Auckland New Zealand based on its known population biology and sterile insect recapture results The analysis suggests that it is extremely unlikely that any wild population might have survived near the core trapping areas beyond mid January 2004 but that there was a significant chance that a small wild population could have remained undetected until then in less intensively trapped areas The moth trapped in Mt Eden in January 2004 plausibly indicates an undetected population there but a continued lack of trap catches over the subsequent year suggests that it is very unlikely that any wild populations now remain undetected within the trapping grid This analysis could be easily adapted for other species targeted for eradication